Atlas Lithium Corp.'s (ATLX:NASDAQ) procurement processes in Q3/25, for various services related to development of its Neves lithium project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, drew significant contractor response, reported H.C. Wainwright & Co. (HCW) Analyst Heiko Ihle in a Nov. 17 research note. HCW lowered its price target on the lithium explorer-developer by 33% due to its recent share issuance and revised production guidance.
"Looking ahead, we expect continued progress on procurement and construction milestones as the company advances toward initial production," Ihle wrote.
175% Return Implied
HCW's new price target on Atlas Lithium is $12 per share ($12/share), previously $18/share, noted the analyst. The financial institution lowered its target price, he explained, because Atlas Lithium issued shares at a price below HCW's net asset value/share and again revised its near-term production expectations.
Ihle also noted that HCW's valuation of ATLX also includes its 28.15% ownership of Atlas Critical Minerals Corp. (JUPGF:OTCQB) at its market price.
At the time of Ihle's report, Atlas Lithium was trading at about $4.37/share. From this price, the return to HCW's new $12/share price target is 175%.
The company remains a Buy.
Atlas Lithium has 23.6 million shares outstanding, a market cap of $103 million ($103M) and a 52-week range of $3.54–8.52/share.
Significant Industry Interest
Atlas Lithium's procurement process for various service packages involves technical site visits, supplier engagement and the evaluation of bids. In September, the company held four technical site visits, each attended by 11–17 contractors, reported Ihle. Across these events, prospective suppliers asked (and Atlas answered) a total of 2,800-plus clarification questions, indicating a high level of interest in Neves.
According to management, the competitive bidding process supports disciplined cost outcomes and validates the project's attractiveness, wrote Ihle. To date, some critical procurement packages, specifically for electromechanical assembly, mine operations, prestripping, crushing equipment and internal road engineering, accounted for about 70% of Neves' capex.
"Looking ahead, we expect continued progress on procurement and construction milestones as the company advances toward initial production," wrote Ihle.
Neves' Strong Economics
Atlas Lithium's technical site visits followed the company's August release of a definitive feasibility study of Neves that showed material economic potential.
"We remain pleased with the contents and financial projections of Atlas' definitive feasibility study," Ihle wrote. "We reiterate that the incorporated economics have ignited significant investor interest."
According to the study, the project is expected to yield a $539M net present value, an after-tax 145% internal rate of return and an 11-month payback period. Operating costs were estimated at $489 per ton.
Other project advantages, noted Ihle, include low-impurity, near-surface spodumene, a fully paid for and on-site Dense Media Separation (DMS) processing plant and a comparatively low direct capex estimate of $57.6M.
"The combination of world-class, low-cost production and minimal upfront capital positions Atlas Lithium among the most compelling lithium projects globally," Ihle wrote.
Exploration at Nearby Asset
Also of note, Ihle pointed out, initial drilling at Atlas Lithium's Salinas project also in Brazil, about 60 miles north of Neves, confirmed promising, near-surface, spodumene-rich mineralization. Through its exploration work at Salinas, the company is "successfully developing its future growth pipeline." The analyst added, "We continue to view the Salinas project as a key area of future growth that is mostly ignored by the market thus far."
Financials Improve YOY
For Q3/25, Atlas Lithium reported a net loss of $8M, or ($0.35) per share, an improvement over Q3/24 when its net loss was $9.7M, or ($0.60) per share.
"We view current financials as largely immaterial given the transitional nature of the firm," Ihle wrote.
Major Catalyst Ahead
Importantly, Atlas Lithium already has in hand a Portaria de Lavra, a mining concession issued by Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy that grants ATLX the highest level of mineral titleship in the country and allows the explorer-developer to start and continue mining operations.
"We now anticipate near-term production. . .which may prove to be a major catalyst as well," Ihle wrote. "Going forward, we plan to closely monitor production over the coming quarters and stress that the company's low-cost status remains a key theme of anticipated operations."
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