On July 1, 2026, Mitchell S. Kapoor and Raghuram Selvaraju, Ph.D., of H.C. Wainwright & Co. reiterated a Sell rating and US$5.00 price target onSarepta Therapeutics Inc. (SRPT:NASDAQ), implying roughly 72% downside from the June 30, 2026 closing price of US$17.97, following the FDA's acceptance of the company's phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomer (PMO) filings, which the analysts argue does not automatically translate into full approvals given that the confirmatory ESSENCE trial missed its primary endpoint.
Filing Acceptance Seen as Procedural, Not a Regulatory Signal
The FDA's acceptance sets a February 28, 2027, PDUFA date, which the analysts say removes near-term administrative risk while creating a defined binary catalyst on PMO durability. They caution against reading the decision as a favorable regulatory indication: "We do not view this as regulatory momentum or hints of favorable regulatory opinions for the PMO franchise."
Although the stock closed up roughly 6% on the news versus a flat XBI (NYSE Arca: XBI), the analysts interpret the acceptance as a "procedural checkpoint," noting that the FDA's agreement to review the package is not a suggestion that the trial results plus real-world evidence (RWE) are sufficient to convert the accelerated approvals into traditional ones.
They emphasize that no DMD PMO has achieved primary efficacy in Phase 3 and converted to a traditional approval. H.C. Wainwright will maintain its bearish stance absent real quarter-over-quarter ELEVIDYS revenue recovery, more definitive siRNA translation in late 2026, or a stronger signal that the FDA is comfortable converting the accelerated approvals despite the failed intent-to-treat (ITT) result.
ESSENCE Endpoint Miss Remains the Core Overhang
ESSENCE was a 225-patient, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial in 6- to 13-year-old DMD patients amenable to exon 45 or exon 53 skipping. The primary endpoint — four-step ascend velocity at Week 96 — numerically favored treatment but missed statistical significance, with a least squares mean difference of 0.06 steps/second and p=0.309.
A COVID-exclusion analysis that removed 23 patients, roughly 10% of the ITT population, improved the delta to 0.12 steps/second at p=0.050. The analysts view this as a plausible regulatory argument that nonetheless leaves the primary analysis failure visible, since the near-positive result depends on excluding a meaningful subset of patients.
Revenue Trajectory and Financial Metrics
PMOs generated US$228.6M in 1Q26 revenue, essentially in line with the Street estimate of US$229M but down 11.8% Q/Q from US$259.2M in 4Q25. The analysts note that traditional approval would support the durability of that revenue stream and reduce business-continuity risk, but they expect approval to carry less positive impact than the potential negative fallout from a Complete Response Letter or additional-data request, because their model already ascribes full value to marketed PMOs. Sarepta cites more than 1,800 amenable patients treated worldwide and RWE signals across ventilation, pulmonary decline, survival, ambulation, cardiac outcomes, and hospitalization, though the analysts maintain these data do not erase the failed primary endpoint.
The next stock-moving event is 2Q26 revenue—particularly whether ELEVIDYS declines again from 1Q26's US$102M and whether PMOs stabilize near the roughly US$230M quarterly run-rate. On the balance sheet, the company holds US$735.1M in cash against US$838.2M in total debt, with a market capitalization of US$1,897M and an enterprise value of US$2,000M. H.C. Wainwright projects full-year 2026 revenue of US$1,744.4M, declining to US$1,286.7M in 2027.
Valuation and Risks
The US$5.00 price target is derived from a 12-month discounted cash flow analysis using a 12% discount rate and a 2% terminal rate of decline, ascribing 100% probability of approval to marketed products. Upside risks include faster-than-expected ELEVIDYS demand recovery, PMO traditional approvals, Cohort 8 data supporting nonambulatory re-entry with payer adoption, a clean sirolimus package enabling SRP-9003 BLA progress, and stronger-than-expected DM1/FSHD functional or biomarker data.
Downside risks include continued ELEVIDYS underutilization, additional safety events, payer pushback in non-ambulatory patients, PMO erosion, or placebo-controlled data that weakens confidence in ELEVIDYS efficacy. Shares closed at US$17.97 on June 30, 2026, leaving roughly 72% potential downside to the US$5.00 target.
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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Sarepta Therapeutics Inc., July 1, 2026
This material is confidential and intended for use by Institutional Accounts as defined in FINRA Rule 4512(c). It may also be privileged or otherwise protected by work product immunity or other legal rules. If you have received it by mistake, please let us know by e-mail reply to [email protected] and delete it from your system; you may not copy this message or disclose its contents to anyone. The integrity and security of this message cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO, LLC RATING SYSTEM: H.C. Wainwright employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potential return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on a RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potential movements in price that a given equity could reach provided certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject to external factors including industry events and market volatility. RETURN ASSESSMENT Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector. Market Perform (Neutral): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector. Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector. Rating and Price Target History for: Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT-US) as of 06-30-2026 200 150 100 50 0 Q2 Q3 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 2026 Q1 Q2 D:UR:NA 10/08/20 I:SELL:$80.00 11/25/24 SELL:$75.00 12/02/24 NEUTRAL:$75.00 04/02/25 NEUTRAL:$40.00 05/07/25 SELL:$10.00 06/16/25 SELL:$0.00 07/21/25 SELL:$5.00 07/29/25 Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months. Distribution of Ratings Table as of June 30, 2026 IB Service/Past 12 Months Ratings Count Percent Count Percent Buy 531 83.89% 154 29.00% Neutral 46 7.27% 12 26.09% Sell 2 0.32% 0 0.00% Under Review 54 8.53% 22 40.74% H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer. I, Mitchell S. Kapoor and Raghuram Selvaraju, Ph.D. , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies. None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of May 31, 2026 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.. Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.
The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services. The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. The Firm does not make a market in Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. as of the date of this research report. The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. This research report is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used to provide tax advice to any person. Electronic versions of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC research reports are made available to all clients simultaneously. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the expressed permission of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC. Additional information available upon request. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC does not provide individually tailored investment advice in research reports. This research report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC’s and its affiliates’ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding its analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research report. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or security discussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this research report: may lose value; are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.






















































