New Data, Analyst Calls, and Pipeline Milestones Put Spotlight on Next Wave of Weight-Loss Drug Developers

GLP-1 receptor agonists are a class of prescription medications used primarily to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. These drugs work by mimicking a natural hormone in the body that helps regulate blood sugar levels, increase insulin release, and create a feeling of fullness after eating. Initially developed to help patients manage diabetes, they are now also widely used for weight management and are being studied for additional medical applications.

Recent market research reports described continued growth in the global market for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist drugs used in the treatment of diabetes and obesity. According to a Grand View Research market report, the global GLP-1 receptor agonist market size was estimated at US$70.08 billion in 2025 and projected to reach US$201.79 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 12.78% from 2026 to 2033.

A separate market analysis reported that the global GLP-1 drugs market began at US$52.95 billion in 2025, was forecast to rise to US$58.05 billion by 2026, and was expected to reach US$132.79 billion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of 9.63% from 2026 to 2035.

The reports indicated that demand for GLP-1 drugs has been increasing due to their use in managing type 2 diabetes and obesity. According to the same GLP-1 drugs market analysis, "The demand as well as the use of GLP-1 drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity is increasing." The report also stated that companies have been collaborating to develop and commercialize products, while research and development efforts have focused on identifying new applications and developing next-generation GLP-1 drugs.

Market data showed that North America held a leading position in the sector. The Grand View Research report stated that the North America GLP-1 receptor agonist market accounted for a 76.19% revenue share in 2025, while the GLP-1 drugs market analysis reported that North America held a 64% share of the global GLP-1 drugs market in 2024. The Grand View Research report also stated that type 2 diabetes was the largest application segment in 2025, accounting for 80.28% of the GLP-1 receptor agonist market.

Research activity and product development were also highlighted in the sector. According to the Grand View Research report, in May 2024, Innovent Biologics announced that its type 2 diabetes candidate, mazdutide, outperformed Eli Lilly's Trulicity in a Phase III trial, demonstrating superior glycemic control and cardiometabolic benefits, including weight loss and improvements in blood lipid levels, liver enzymes, serum uric acid, and blood pressure. The same report stated that in October 2023, Carmot Therapeutics published preliminary results from a Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating CT-996, an oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, in individuals who are overweight or obese.

Recent corporate activity included Roche's acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics in December 2023 for US$2.7 billion in upfront payments, according to the Grand View Research report. The report stated that the acquisition added Carmot to a group of companies developing GLP-1 therapies.

The reports also described investments in drug development. The Grand View Research report stated that in November 2023, Novo Nordisk announced plans to invest approximately 16 billion Danish kroner, equivalent to about US$2.32 billion, in developing GLP-1 drugs. The GLP-1 drugs market analysis also stated that companies have been increasing research and development to identify new applications and next-generation therapies, including the use of artificial intelligence to design GLP-1 analogs and predict drug outcomes.

Market segmentation data indicated that specific drugs held leading shares. The Grand View Research report stated that the Ozempic segment accounted for 37.77% of the GLP-1 receptor agonist market in 2025, while the GLP-1 drugs market analysis reported that semaglutide-based drugs held a 49% share of the GLP-1 drugs market in 2024.

Additional Precedence market research on obesity-focused GLP-1 therapies estimated that the global obesity GLP-1 market was valued at US$8.21 billion in 2025 and projected to reach approximately US$66.57 billion by 2035, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 23.28% from 2026 to 2035, according to a separate obesity GLP-1 market analysis.

GLP-1 Market Competition and Public Company Performance

CNBC reported on February 4 that Novo Nordisk (NVO:NYSE) and Eli Lilly were "grappling with lower prices in the U.S." and described their 2026 outlooks as diverging, stating that Novo was "bracing for a sales decline" while Lilly "sees revenue jumping again thanks to its blockbuster medicines." CNBC reported that Eli Lilly forecast 2026 sales of "$80 billion to US$83 billion," and that this surpassed the "$77.62 billion that analysts were expecting, according to LSEG." CNBC also reported that Novo warned on Feb. 3, 2026, that it saw sales and profit declining "by 5% to 13% this year," citing falling U.S. prices and exclusivity expiring for certain drugs in China, Brazil, and Canada.

Mercer published a Q&A-style post on its website on July 24, 2024, titled "GLP-1 considerations for 2026: Your questions answered!" that discussed how employers were approaching GLP-1 coverage decisions. Mercer reported that "In 2024, 44% of all employers with 500 or more employees, and 64% of those with 20,000 or more, covered weight loss medications," and stated that GLP-1s approved for weight loss were "priced over US$1,000 per month before rebates." Mercer also cited Prime Therapeutics data, stating that "only 1 in 12 members remain on treatment after three years," and reported that in Mercer's Survey on Health & Benefits Strategies for 2026, "77% of large employers (500 or more employees) say managing their overall GLP-1 costs is extremely or very important."

As demand for GLP-1 therapies expands across diabetes and obesity treatment, investor attention has increasingly focused on the companies developing and commercializing these drugs. Market research reports and industry coverage indicate that a small group of pharmaceutical manufacturers currently holds leading positions in the sector, supported by established products, clinical pipelines, and ongoing investment in next-generation therapies. The following companies have been identified in market reports and industry analyses as key participants in the GLP-1 drug landscape.

Eli Lilly

 Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY:NYSE) is a global pharmaceutical manufacturer founded in 1876 and headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Lilly researches, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for patients worldwide and maintains operations across North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions. The company is led by President and Chief Executive Officer David A. Ricks and focuses on delivering therapies to both developed and emerging markets.

The company's core business centers on the discovery and development of small-molecule and biologic therapies across multiple therapeutic areas. According to company materials, these include diabetes and metabolic disease, oncology, neuroscience, immunology, and pain. Lilly's commercial portfolio includes established medicines such as Humalog insulin, duloxetine (Cymbalta), fluoxetine (Prozac), and newer therapies, including tirzepatide-based treatments and oncology and migraine drugs such as Alimta, Verzenio, and Emgality. The company also combines internal research programs with external collaborations and licensing agreements to expand its pipeline and global reach.

Research and development is described by the company as a central operational priority, supported by investment in clinical development, regulatory activities, and manufacturing scale-up. Lilly operates multiple research centers and manufacturing facilities worldwide, and its pipeline spans early-stage discovery through late-stage clinical trials targeting both established and emerging disease areas.

Recent clinical developments announced on February 18 included topline results from Lilly's Phase 3b TOGETHER-PsO trial evaluating the combined use of Taltz and Zepbound. In a company news release, Lilly reported that the combination therapy met primary and key secondary endpoints, delivering superior skin clearance and weight loss compared with Taltz alone. The company stated that 27.1% of participants receiving the combination achieved both complete skin clearance and at least 10% weight loss, compared with 5.8% in the monotherapy group.

In the CNBC report, Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger told CNBC that "The difference in sales momentum and market share trend was visible throughout 2025," and said, "That really solidified an investor's mind that Lilly is going to be the dominant player in obesity going forward." CNBC also reported that Lilly "pointed to a 'global pricing decline in the low- to mid- teens [percentages] this year,'" and linked that to "the landmark 'most favored nation' deals both companies struck with President Donald Trump in November" to reduce obesity and diabetes drug costs, along with efforts to reduce direct-to-consumer prices. CNBC further reported that in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Feb. 4, 2026, Lilly CEO David Ricks said "20 million to 25 million patients are currently taking both companies' medicines," and described the obesity addressable market as "gigantic."

U.S. News & World Report published a stock-focused roundup on February 3 titled "7 Best Weight Loss Drug Stocks to Buy in 2026," listing seven companies and providing year-to-date returns "as of the Feb. 2 market close." In that table, U.S. News & World Report listed Eli Lilly and Co. at -2.8% year to date, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) at 15.8%, Pfizer Inc. (PFE:NYSE) at 8.9%, AstraZeneca Plc (AZN:NYSE; AZN:LON) at 7.4%, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA:NYSE) at 13.8%, Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX:NASDAQ) at -15.8%, and Viatris Inc. (VTRS:NASDAQ) at 9.9%. In its discussion of Eli Lilly, U.S. News & World Report reported that the company's "most recent reported quarter showed non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.02, up from US$1.18 for the same quarter last year," and that "revenue surged by 54% over the same period, to US$17.6 billion," while also attributing an opinion to Novare Capital Management's James Harlow, who said, "Eli Lilly remains the preferred way to ride growth in weight loss and diabetes drugs." The same U.S. News & World Report article also stated that "Starting mid-2026, Medicare will begin covering GLP-1 weight-loss drugs for select patient groups," and said that "state Medicaid programs may adopt similar coverage at newly negotiated price levels as low as US$245 per month," while also stating that the World Health Organization "issued its first global guideline recommending long-term GLP-1 use for obesity treatment in December."

According to a February 13 report from Fierce Pharma, Eli Lilly had built significant launch inventory ahead of a potential approval of its oral GLP-1 candidate. The publication reported that Lilly had secured "pre-launch inventories" worth US$1.5 billion as of Dec. 31, with most tied to orforglipron. Fierce Pharma wrote that the company's "early and aggressive stockpiling push for orforglipron suggests an effort to avoid a shortage shortly into the drug's prospective debut," referencing supply constraints that occurred during earlier GLP-1 rollouts. The report also cited comments from Lilly's chief scientist Daniel Skovronsky, who said the company planned to launch orforglipron "in many, many countries around the world, as quickly as possible."

In a February 10 report from Freedom Broker, analysts Ilya Zubkov, Boris Tolkachev, and Aidyn Seitzhapbar stated that Eli Lilly had "outpaced the most optimistic forecasts," driven primarily by continued strength in its incretin-based therapies. The report noted that growth was concentrated in the company's metabolic portfolio, writing that "growth is being driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound," while other segments showed weaker performance.

The analysts wrote that an additional catalyst could come from regulatory developments, stating that "an additional boost could come from the anticipated Q2 approval of Lilly's oral GLP-1," which they described as "the most significant catalyst of the year for the company." The report also indicated that newer product launches were expected to offset declines in older medicines, noting that "Lilly expects new launches… to partially offset declines in mature brands." Freedom Broker maintained a Buy rating on the stock and disclosed a price target of US$1,200. 

According to MarketBeat's MarketRank data, Eli Lilly and Company held an average analyst rating of "Moderate Buy" based on aggregated analyst opinions. MarketBeat reported that the company scored in the 99th percentile overall among companies evaluated and ranked 10th out of 875 stocks in the medical sector. The MarketRank summary also reported projected earnings growth of 32.54%, while describing short interest levels as "healthy" and dividend strength as "strong."

¹84.45% of Eli Lilly is held by Institutions. Of those, Lilly Endowment owns 9.74%, The Vanguard Group holds 8.65%, PNC Investments has 5.42%, and BlackRock Institutional Trust owns 4.44%. Management and Insiders hold 0.18% and Strategic Entities own 0.2%. The rest is retail.

Eli Lilly has 943.36 million shares outstanding, a market cap of US$977.365 billion, and a 52-week range of US$623.78 - US$1,133.95.

Amgen

Amgen Inc. (AMGN:NASDAQ) is a biotechnology company headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, that focuses on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and delivering innovative medicines to treat serious diseases. According to company information, Amgen develops therapies across multiple areas, including oncology, cardiovascular disease, inflammatory conditions, rare diseases, and obesity and related metabolic disorders. The company has operated for more than 45 years and uses biological research and human genetic data to support drug discovery and development.

Amgen's recent revenue performance has been supported by key medicines including Repatha, Evenity, and Blincyto, along with newer therapies such as Tavneos and Tezspire. Rare disease treatments and newly launched biosimilar products have also contributed to top-line growth and have helped offset declining revenue from mature products such as Enbrel. The company has indicated that its leading cardiovascular, oncology, rare disease, and biosimilar medicines are expected to remain important drivers of revenue growth into 2026.

Biosimilars have been identified as a key strategic area for Amgen. The company reported that new biosimilar launches generated strong sales during the first nine months of 2025 and are expected to help mitigate the impact of upcoming patent expirations. Patents covering RANKL antibodies for Prolia and Xgeva expired in the United States in February 2025 and in certain European markets in November 2025, and sales of these products are expected to face increased competition as biosimilars enter the market.

Amgen has also been advancing pipeline programs tied to the broader obesity and metabolic treatment landscape, which has been a central theme of the GLP-1 sector. The company's obesity candidate MariTide, a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor therapy, has been developed as a single-dose injectable designed for monthly or less frequent administration. In clinical studies, the drug demonstrated sustained weight loss and measurable improvements in cardiometabolic parameters. Several data readouts for the program were expected within the following six to twelve months, representing potential development milestones.

In a February 12 report from Freedom Broker, analysts Ilya Zubkov, Boris Tolkachev, and Aidyn Seitzhapbar stated that Amgen had "delivered a strong Q4 print, with results materially ahead of our expectations," and noted that "core growth drivers remain intact, and newer products continue to deliver impressive momentum." The report stated that the low end of the company's 2026 revenue guidance exceeded the analysts' forecasts, while also indicating that "top-line pressure will persist from biosimilar launches for Prolia and XGEVA." The analysts raised their price target to US$375 from US$360 and downgraded the rating to Hold.

The same report stated that newer therapies were expected to support performance, writing that "Repatha and EVENITY continue to deliver solid quarterly growth" and that management expected "these two products to remain the primary growth engines for the segment in 2026." The analysts also wrote that "sustained momentum in newer therapies will help cushion the overall revenue impact" from the loss of exclusivity affecting certain mature products.

The report also discussed pipeline developments, stating that Amgen continued to emphasize MariTide's dosing profile, noting its "potential for subcutaneous dosing once monthly or once quarterly as a key differentiator versus existing GLP-1 receptor agonists." The analysts added that the MARITIME development program remained on track and included multiple Phase III trials.

¹Institutions own 85.37% of Amgen, with The Vanguard Group holding the most at 10.12%. State Street Investment holds 5.67% and BlackRock Institutional owns 5.49%. Management and Insiders hold 0.17% and Strategic Entities own 0.05%. The rest is retail.

Amgen has 539.07 million outstanding shares, a market cap of US$201.266 billion, and a 52-week range of US$261.43 – US$385.12.

Structure Therapeutics Inc.

Structure Therapeutics Inc. (GPCR:NASDAQ) is a clinical-stage global biopharmaceutical company headquartered in San Francisco that focuses on developing oral small-molecule therapeutics for metabolic diseases, with an emphasis on obesity treatment.

According to company materials, the company applies structure-based drug discovery to design orally available medicines targeting G protein-coupled receptors, with the goal of improving scalability, patient access, and long-term treatment options for chronic metabolic conditions.

The company's pipeline is centered on obesity and related metabolic diseases. Its development programs include oral glucagon-like peptide receptor agonists as well as amylin receptor therapies designed to address appetite regulation and metabolic control. Structure Therapeutics has reported advancing multiple programs through clinical development, reflecting the company's stated focus on translating metabolic biology into oral therapies.

Recent development activity included the initiation of a Phase 1 clinical study announced on December 17 for ACCG-2671, an oral small molecule amylin receptor agonist being evaluated for the treatment of obesity. The company stated that the study was designed to assess safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamic activity in healthy volunteers and individuals with obesity. Company leadership stated that the program represented an expansion of its metabolic portfolio and reflected efforts to develop therapies that could be used both as monotherapies and in combination with GLP-1 receptor agonists.

Structure Therapeutics' research focus links directly to the broader industry theme of expanding treatment approaches for obesity and metabolic disease beyond injectable GLP-1 therapies. The company has stated that its oral small molecule programs are intended to broaden treatment accessibility and support combination strategies within the evolving obesity treatment landscape.

According to a June 6, 2024, report from Barchart, Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger stated that Structure Therapeutics' GSBR-1290 "delivers compelling obesity efficacy" based on results after three months of treatment. The same June 6, 2024, report cited JPMorgan analyst Hardik Parikh, who said, "We think the opportunity for oral GLP-1s is underappreciated and think this market could generate US$30 billion in sales by 2035." The publication also reported that analysts held a unanimous "Strong Buy" rating on the company, with an average price target of US$78.78 and a Street-high price target of US$93.

In a January 6 report from LifeSci Capital, analysts stated that Structure Therapeutics had advanced its pipeline and noted that the company had secured intellectual property positioning, writing that the "surprise FTO license to Roche significantly strengthens the long-term competitive positioning of the aleniglipron program." The same report maintained an "OUTPERFORM" rating with a price target of US$107.00 and stated that "these data paint a picture of orforglipron maintenance use demonstrating a 'Wegovy-like' profile."

In a February 11 report from H.C. Wainwright & Co., analysts Ananda Ghosh and Andrew Fein stated that the firm maintained a Buy rating and a US$90 price target. The analysts wrote that "the obesity landscape got more interesting following positive Phase 2 data for oral ribupatide," and noted that "the emergence of high-potency 'Fast Orals'… has raised the efficacy bar for the entire small-molecule class." They stated that Structure's lead candidate retained a cost advantage, writing that "aleniglipron maintains an 80–90% COGS advantage over peptides."

¹The analysts also discussed future performance expectations, stating that "to maintain a competitive edge, the bar for aleniglipron's 240 mg data is now set at a minimum of 15% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 52 weeks." They further wrote that they were "looking forward to the amylin data readout, where positive data might add substantial value to the pipeline potential."

Institutions hold 98.49% of Structure Therapeutics. Fidelity Management owns the most at 11.54%, Wellington Management owns 10.3%, and Avoro Capital Advisors owns 9.48%. Management and Insiders own 2.51%. The rest is retail.

Structure has 69.14 million outstanding shares, a market cap of US$4.94 billion, and a 52-week range of US$13.22 - US$94.90.