Published March 26, 2026, analysts Mitchell S. Kapoor and Raghuram Selvaraju, Ph.D. of H.C. Wainwright & Co. reiterated their Sell rating on Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. (SRPT:NASDAQ) with an unchanged 12-month price target of US$5.00, implying roughly 79% downside from the March 25, 2026 closing price of US$23.77.
The analysts argue that encouraging early-stage siRNA data from the company's DM1 and FSHD programs, while attention-grabbing, cannot compensate for the ongoing deterioration in ELEVIDYS sales and the broader risks surrounding Sarepta's PMO-based product portfolio.
siRNA Programs: Impressive Muscle Concentration, Incomplete Clinical Story
Sarepta's DM1 candidate SRP-1003, developed using Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (ARWR:NASDAQ) TRiM platform, demonstrated notably higher muscle concentration than competing approaches — 12.2nM versus approximately 1.43nM for Avidity Biosciences' AOC 1001 (an mAb-siRNA) and approximately 1.86nM for Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.'s (DYN: NASDAQ) DYNE-101 (a Fab-ASO).
However, the analysts caution that this mechanistic advantage has not yet translated into clearly superior clinical outcomes. Sarepta disclosed only Cohort 1 DMPK knockdown data, showing just over 50% placebo-adjusted reduction, while acknowledging it lacks Cohort 2 and 3 data due to sample-availability and assay-transition issues. By comparison, Avidity reported approximately 47% placebo-adjusted DMPK reduction despite far lower muscle concentration, while Dyne reported approximately 26% reduction alongside a 3.3-second video hand opening time (vHOT) improvement at six months — sustained to one year — versus Avidity's approximately 2–3 second vHOT improvement at one year. The analysts conclude that investors supporting the bull case are relying on "multi-step mechanistic extrapolation vs. clean human dose-response with clear superior biology."
In FSHD, SRP-1001 similarly leads on muscle concentration at 28.4nM compared to approximately 4.5nM for Avidity's delpacibart braxlosiran, and reported approximately 90% placebo-adjusted suppression across DUX4-regulated gene panels along with a 33% creatine kinase (CK) reduction. The analysts note, however, that the DUX4 analysis was pooled across lower single-ascending-dose cohorts, with the dataset still too small to demonstrate a dose response, and that data dropout occurred during a transition from fit-for-purpose to validated assays. On a cross-trial basis, SRP-1001's 33% CK reduction only modestly exceeded the approximately 30% CK decline previously reported by Avidity, while Sarepta's DUX4 panel data carried placebo error bars in the 50–60% range compared to Avidity's 53% DUX4-related gene reduction with narrower placebo error bars topping out at approximately 25%. The analysts also note that Sarepta itself cautioned investors not to over-read CK data, describing the measure as "inherently noisy."
Safety Concerns Add to the Uncertainty
On the safety front, SRP-1001 recorded one unrelated serious adverse event of chest discomfort, while SRP-1003 had one fatal arrhythmia that Sarepta characterized as unrelated to the study drug, occurring in the lowest-dose single-dose cohort.
While regulators permitted continued dose escalation, the analysts highlight that neither Dyne's Phase 1/2 DM1 program (n=56) nor Avidity's (n=38) has reported a fatal event to date. The analysts note that Sarepta "now has to carry a fatal event in a still-immature DM1 program until a larger dataset provides more clarity," even acknowledging that DM1 patients carry baseline cardiac risk.
ELEVIDYS and PMOs Remain the Key Value Drivers
The analysts emphasize that the roughly 35% single-day stock move — against the XBI's approximately 3.5% gain — reflects how little value the market had previously assigned to the siRNA programs, with investor attention firmly anchored to ELEVIDYS and the PMO franchise.
The analysts project ELEVIDYS revenue to decline sharply, from US$898.7 million in 2025 to just US$355.2 million in 2026, as the product faces significant headwinds. Total revenue is forecast to fall from US$2.198 billion in 2025 to US$1.750 billion in 2026, with net income swinging from a loss of US$713.4 million in 2025 to estimated earnings of US$435.5 million in 2026, the latter heavily supported by collaboration and licensing revenues projected at US$450 million.
Competitive Landscape and Path to Market
The analysts highlight the difficulty of Sarepta's competitive position in both DM1 and FSHD. DM1 is characterized as a crowded space, while FSHD is noted as particularly challenging, citing Roche's (ROG.SW) recent discontinuation of emugrobart — an anti-myostatin antibody that failed to show consistent improvements in muscular growth in Phase 2. With pivotal development in DM1 and FSHD not anticipated to begin until 2027 and potential market entry no earlier than 2030, the analysts argue these programs cannot offset near-term value erosion.
They further note that without a first-mover advantage, Sarepta would face "significant commercial disadvantages with respect to both pricing and patient acquisition."
Valuation
H.C. Wainwright's US$5.00 price target is derived from a discounted cash flow model using a 12% discount rate and a 2% terminal rate of decline, running through 2045. After accounting for estimated end-2026 cash of approximately US$1.5 billion and debt of approximately US$800 million, the firm arrives at an equity valuation of US$618 million.
The analysts ascribe 100% probability of approval to marketed products ELEVIDYS, Amondys 45, Exondys 51, and Vyondys 53. Key risks to the downside thesis include an FDA reversal on ELEVIDYS approval status in non-ambulatory patients, the potential for Sarepta to navigate a path forward for ELEVIDYS in patients not susceptible to liver injury, and additional favorable clinical data from development-stage assets.
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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Sarepta Therapeutics Inc., March 26, 2026
This material is confidential and intended for use by Institutional Accounts as defined in FINRA Rule 4512(c). It may also be privileged or otherwise protected by work product immunity or other legal rules. If you have received it by mistake, please let us know by e-mail reply to [email protected] and delete it from your system; you may not copy this message or disclose its contents to anyone. The integrity and security of this message cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO, LLC RATING SYSTEM: H.C. Wainwright employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potential return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on a RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potential movements in price that a given equity could reach provided certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject to external factors including industry events and market volatility. RETURN ASSESSMENT Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector. Market Perform (Neutral): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector. Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of all the common stock of companies within the same sector.
Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months. Distribution of Ratings Table as of March 24, 2026 IB Service/Past 12 Months Ratings Count Percent Count Percent Buy 582 87.26% 167 28.69% Neutral 60 9.00% 10 16.67% Sell 1 0.15% 0 0.00% Under Review 24 3.60% 4 16.67% H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer. I, Mitchell S. Kapoor and Raghuram Selvaraju, Ph.D. , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies. None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. and Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of February 28, 2026 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. and Dyne Therapeutics, Inc.. Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. A research analyst of the firm and/or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in and own the securities of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of February 28, 2026 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services. The firm or its affiliates received compensation from Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for non-investment banking services in the previous 12 months. The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. and Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. The Firm or its affiliates did receive compensation from Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months before, and will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report.
The Firm does not make a market in Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Dyne Therapeutics, Inc. as of the date of this research report. The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. This research report is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used to provide tax advice to any person. Electronic versions of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC research reports are made available to all clients simultaneously. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the expressed permission of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC. Additional information available upon request. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC does not provide individually tailored investment advice in research reports. This research report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC’s and its affiliates’ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding its analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research report. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or security discussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this research report: may lose value; are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
