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Ashok Kumar Thinks Full Enrollment Brings the Pivotal Readout Into View for Annovis Bio
Research Report

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Biotechnology / Pharmaceuticals

Source:

The path for Annovis Bio includes financing, persuasive cognition and function, balanced safety, a workable FDA filing path, and durable exclusivity.


Healthcare
September 08, 2026Ashok Kumar, PhD, CFA

Annovis Bio, Inc. (ANVS - $1.39 - Buy)

Full Enrollment Brings the Pivotal Readout Into View

Key Points

A More Informative Pivotal Test. We retain our BUY rating and lower our price target to $10 from $20. Full enrollment brings the March 2027 Alzheimer’s readout into view. About 860 pTau217-positive patients were randomized to 30 mg oral buntanetap or placebo, with cognition and daily function assessed at six and 18 months. Dilution and financing drive the lower target.

Prior Evidence Supports a Focused Prospective Test. The earlier 351-patient study missed its prespecified intent-to-treat co-primary endpoints but generated a testable hypothesis. In 90 biomarker-positive patients with mild disease, the 30 mg group showed a 3.06-point placeboadjusted ADAS-Cog11 difference between reported least-squares mean changes at nominal p = .015. A later analysis reported a separate adjusted 2.373-point benefit. Both were exploratory and lacked functional confirmation.

Two small earlier studies add supportive but inconclusive context. Management says the stage pattern informed the pivotal MMSE range of 20 to 28. The exploratory signal centered in pTau217-positive MMSE 21 to 24 patients, while MMSE 14 to 20 showed no treatmentrelated cognitive effect. The MMSE 25 to 28 segment will prospectively extend the prior 30 mg evidence base.

Reported FDA Alignment and Safety Oversight Support the Design. Management reports FDA alignment on the dual-readout design and states that the end-of-Phase 2 meeting and a subsequent Type C meeting addressed Type I error control, multiplicity, and endpoint designation for the 18-month assessment. On the September 2 webinar, management described an independent firewall designed to preserve the 18-month blind.

In February 2026, Annovis reported that the independent safety board found no concerns and recommended continuation without modification.

Financing Provides a Defined Bridge to Data. Annovis reported $18.729 million of cash at June 30 and plans to raise approximately $15 million before year-end. Our model assumes 12.0 million shares at $1.25 with one $1.50 warrant per share. Shareholder approval to expand authorized shares would enable the financing. Greater capital needs, lower pricing, or heavier warrant coverage would increase dilution.

Summary

Valuation and Milestones Support the $10 Target. Our September 2027 target-date rNPV produces $9.89 per share, rounded to $10. The model applies 30%, 25%, and 45% weights to disease-modifying, symptomatic-only, and no-approval states. Alzheimer’s value of $711.3 million plus a $10 million Parkinson’s option becomes $829.5 million after 15% target-date accretion. Adding $128.0 million of warrant proceeds and net post-readout financing produces $957.5 million of equity value across 96.809 million diluted shares. The path includes financing, persuasive cognition and function, balanced safety, a workable FDA filing path, and durable exclusivity. A mixed result could preserve value through FDA dialogue or the 18-month dataset. A clear miss, safety concern, another pivotal study, or distressed financing are risks that could create substantial downside and impede price target achievement. The prospective test offers credible value creation.

Rating, Price and Target

Symbol ANVS

Rating Buy

Price $1.39

Price Target (Prev.) $10.00 ($20.00)

Market Data

Market Cap (M) $59.2

Shares Outstanding (M) 42.6

Average Daily Volume (000s) 882.4

Float (M) 35.3

Total Debt (M) $0.0

Net Cash/Debt ($M) $18.7

Dividend NM

General: Pro forma total debt is $0.00 million and pro forma net cash is $18.73 million, based on June 30, 2026 reported balances and disclosed completed financing through September 4, 2026. Net cash excludes subsequent operating cash usage and potential warrant and option exercise proceeds. Debt excludes the accounting warrant liability.

FYE Dec 2024A 2025A

EPS1 (2.31) (1.40)↓

Previous (2.31) (1.34)

Revenue (M) ($) 0.0 0.0

1Pro forma fully diluted shares outstanding total approximately 63.64 million, based on the latest disclosed capitalization through September 4, 2026. Includes 42.606 million common shares, 18.210 million warrants and 2.826 million options on a gross as-exercised basis, without a treasury-stock adjustment. Excludes contemplated financing and unissued equity-plan capacity.

Company Description

Annovis Bio is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing treatments for neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. Its lead candidate, buntanetap, is an investigational, once-daily oral small molecule designed to inhibit production of multiple neurotoxic proteins. Annovis is evaluating buntanetap in a fully enrolled pivotal Phase 3 trial in biomarkerpositive patients with early Alzheimer’s disease, with assessments of cognition and daily function at six and 18 months. The company also conducts a Parkinson’s disease open-label extension study and is planning further development in Parkinson’s disease dementia. Annovis is headquartered in Malvern, Pennsylvania, and trades on the NYSE under ANVS.

Important Disclosures:

Think Equity Disclosures

Analyst Certification The analyst, Ashok Kumar, responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report. Financial Interests The analyst, Ashok Kumar, has no financial interest in the debt or equity securities of the subject company of this report. Further, no member of his household has any financial interest in the securities of the subject company. Neither the analyst, nor any member of his household, is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is the subject of this research report. The analyst has not received compensation from the subject company. The CEO of ThinkEquity, LLC., owns shares in the company. At the time of this research report, the analyst does not know, or have reason to know, of any other material conflict of interest. Company Specific Disclosures ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity, LLC or an affiliate has a client relationship with and has received compensation from this subject company Annovis Bio, Inc. in the last 12 months. ThinkEquity, LLC ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking business from the subject company in the next three months. ThinkEquity does not make a market in the securities of the subject company of this report at the time of publication. ThinkEquity does not hold a beneficial ownership of more than 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. This report is for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we have not independently verified the information and we do not represent or guarantee that the report is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any references or citations to, or excerpts from, third-party information or data sources (including, but not limited to, Bloomberg and Capital IQ) do not and are not intended to provide financial or investment advice and are not to be relied upon by anyone as providing financial or investment advice. Based on public information available to us, prices and opinions expressed in this report reflect judgments as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The securities covered by or mentioned in this report involve substantial risk and should generally be purchased only by investors able to accept such risk. This research report and the securities mentioned herein, some of which may not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, are intended only for Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), as defined under Rule 144A. Any opinions expressed assume that this type of investment is suitable for the investor. Ratings Definitions ThinkEquity rating definitions are expressed as the total return relative to the expected performance of S&P 500 over a 12-month period. BUY (B) - Total return expected to exceed S&P 500 by at least 10% HOLD (H) - Total return expected to be in-line with S&P 500 SELL (S) - Total return expected to underperform S&P 500 by at least 10% Current Ratings Distribution This Equity Ratings Distribution reflects the percentage distribution for rated equity securities for the twelve month period June 30, 2019 through June 30, 2020. Within the twelve month period ended June 30, 2020, ThinkEquity, LLC has provided investment banking services to 54% of companies with equity rated a Buy, 0% of companies with equity rated a Hold and 0% of companies with equity rated a Sell. As of June 30, 2020, ThinkEquity, LLC had twentythree stocks under coverage: Buy 23 (100%), Hold 0 (0%), Sell 0 (0%). ThinkEquity rating distribution by percentage (as of September 8, 2026): All companies under coverage: All companies under coverage to which it has provided investment banking services in the previous 12 months: Buy (1) 100.00% Buy (1) 86.78% Hold (2) 0.00% Hold (2) 0% Sell (3) 0.00% Sell (3) 0%

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